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Unveiling 2020: Beyond Expectations in Mortality Trends

In a surprising turn of events, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has shed light on the unexpected twists in mortality trends for the year 2020.

A Decline Amidst the Pandemic

Contrary to widespread predictions, the COVID-19 pandemic did not lead to a surge in mortality rates; instead, there was a significant decline of 8,001 deaths. In 2020, the registered deaths numbered 161,300, down from 169,301 in 2019, according to the latest ABS data.

COVID-19, surprisingly, held the 38th rank among causes of death in 2020, with a mere 898 recorded deaths. This unexpected outcome can be attributed to effective public health measures that not only kept COVID-19 numbers low but also contributed to a reduction in deaths from various causes.

The Unchanged Top Five

While the COVID-19 situation brought about unexpected outcomes, Australia's top five leading causes of death, including heart disease and dementia, remained consistent from 2019 to 2020. What's noteworthy is that the mortality rate for each of these top five causes experienced a decline, marking the first such decrease since 2008-09.

Australia's Top Causes of Death in 2020

1. Heart disease
2. Dementia (including Alzheimer’s)
3. Stroke (Cerebrovascular diseases)
4. Lung cancer
5. Chronic lower respiratory diseases

The Ripple Effect of Stay-at-Home Orders

Beyond the impact on COVID-19, stay-at-home orders had a broader positive effect on public health. The spread of infectious diseases such as the common cold and pneumonia was curtailed, resulting in a significant drop in their rankings from the 9th leading cause of death in 2019 to 17th in 2020.

Further positive trends emerged, with decreases in reported deaths from suicide, drug overdoses, and motor vehicle incidents. The suicide rate saw a decline to 12.1 per 100,000 people, down from 12.9 in 2019. However, not all figures were positive, as alcohol-induced deaths increased by 8.3% (108 additional deaths) in 2020 compared to 2019.

The decline in mortality was consistent across the country, with all jurisdictions except the Australian Capital Territory recording a decrease in death registrations in 2020.

Births in Decline

Interestingly, alongside the decrease in deaths, there was also a decline in births in 2020. Statista estimates nearly a four per cent decrease, with approximately 294,400 babies born compared to 306,200 in 2019.

The Anticipation of a Pandemic Baby Boom

As for the much-anticipated pandemic baby boom, it's a waiting game. Official ABS 2020 birth figures are set to be published in December 2021, leaving us in suspense about whether Australians spent lockdown merely watching Netflix or fully embraced the "chill."

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